The solution to the Syrian “civil war” remains elusive, perhaps unachievable. It’s the Syrian people and rebels versus Assad, Russia and Iran, with ISIS an added force allied only with themselves. How have the Syrian rebels have lasted so long? That’s the real mystery.
The US interest has been transient, ineffective, and uncertain in goals. Of course, the West applauds the recent US strike following Assad’s use of poison gas. There was no choice but to take this step. But what next? Beyond inserting US forces, I have no idea what we could do to reverse the apparent course of events.
Russia and Iran are committed to Assad emerging as the leader of Syria. Russia has a vital stake in Assad remaining in power: the only Russian naval base on the Mediterranean at the port of Tartus.
And both Russia and Iran can claim the role of maintaining order in Syria, as they have been “invited” by Assad. Our intervention would, therefore, be “un-invited.” The US once again faces the choice of another proxy war, much like the one being conducted in Yemen between the US and Saudi Arabia on one side and Iran on the other.
One might argue that the US failure to intervene with troops at a much earlier date might have carried the day and defeated Assad. But considering subsequent events after our intervention in Iraq, that alternative was avoided. The result of intervention with US troops was totally unpredictable.
Perhaps there never was a solution for Syria.
