The war between the Houthis of Yemen and the Saudis (joined by the UAE) has dragged on far too long. Yemen, already a disaster area before the war, has sunk to a terrible low.

But now the Saudis have requested a ceasefire. The Saudis must fight their internal war against Covid19 in the midst of dropping oil prices. The Houthis have shown ability to strike within Saudi territory. And despite superior arms and US support, the Saudis have been unable to best the Houthis in battle. The Saudis may be ready to give up. The UAE seems out of the game.

To the dismay of the Yemenis, the Saudis still maintain their blockade of Hodeidah, preventing the shipment of needed goods.

Within the next month we should know if the Saudis will really give up.

But even with the most favorable outcome, the disaster of Yemen with continue. The Houthis control the north of the country, and the old Hadi government controls the south around the port of Aden. The country lacks water. Its medical facilities are in shambles. If Covid19 gets into the population, they will have no way to manage.

As bad as it is in Yemen today, what will we see there in a year?