Given our drift to modernity, one might think religion is no longer the issue in Middle East politics. Hasn’t the world advanced beyond those old, very old, differences? Surely, the issue is more likely oil, political power, land, or some combination thereof.
But an analysis of the Sunni/Shia disposition of the combatants suggests that religion is still at the heart of the conflicts. Christians and Jews take the sideline in these confrontations.
The evidence for the contention that religion is the issue is circumstantial but strong nevertheless by virtue of the way the parties stack up.
The prototypical example is the Iran-Saudi Arabia mess. Saudi Arabia is Sunni, and Iran is Shi’a. The two countries fear each other and have no plan for settling their differences. They are engaged in a proxy war in Yemen with the Iranians assisting the Houthis and the Saudis bombing in support of the old Hadi government. The Houthis are an obscure branch of Shi’a Islam, which is a Fiver sect of Shi’a rather than the more common Twelver sect. The numbers five and twelve indicate of the numbers of approved or inspired imams ruling since Mohammed. Those who support Hadi are Sunni.
In Iraq, the conflicts have also centered about the Sunni/Shi’a conflict. The northern portion of the country is under Sunni influence, and the southern portion is predominantly Shi’a. The current government is under Shi’a control, and alliances with Shi’a Iran have strengthened.
The Syrian Civil War also has its basis in the Shi’a/Sunni conflict. Assad’s Alawite ruling minority is branch of Shi’a Islam. They are supported by Iran. The Sunni majority in the country are supported by Gulf states and Turkey. While ISIL has complicated the mix by opposing everyone, the basic trouble remains between Sunni and Shi’a.
Finally, Lebanon and Palestine, when they have the energy, periodically take up the conflict. Lebanon, primarily Shi’a, and Hezbollah, their Shi’a splinter group, clash with Sunni Palestine and Hamas, their political action group.
Next, we’ll take up the reasons for the Shi’a/Sunni dispute.
