Iran in Ascent, Saudi Arabia in Descent

Iran ascends. Saudi Arabia descends. There are three reasons for these trends: history, finances, and diversity.

Hegel called the Persians the first Historical People.  The Medes brought the nation together in 625 BC. Cyrus the Great later ruled three continents from Persepolis, creating the first world empire. The Seleucids, the Parthians, and the Sasanians followed finally competing with the Roman Empire and the Byzantine Empire. Monuments to these former kingdoms still exist and issue the promise of more to come.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, operates from tribal history with its major achievements marked by the rise of Islam in the seventh century and the unification brought by the great Abdulaziz Al Saud in 1932.

The finances of Iran, while troubled by the sanctions which have been recently released, can only improve.

The finances of Saudi Arabia are troubled. They have a 100 billion dollar budget deficit and no obvious way to get out of the problem. They tried to break the back of the US gas and shale industry, but failed. They threaten to sell their US assets. They must devote resources to combating ISIL.

The diversity of Iran has been concealed by the theocracy, but the power and reach of the Ayatollah is diminishing as new resources flood into the country with the fresh money.

Saudi Arabia has effectively limited its diversity and will now pay the price.

The Saudi dominance of the Middle East is over.