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The country of Jordan has long been a haven for Middle East refugees. Due to its central location, its government, which has been relatively tolerant to refugees, and its peaceful history, Jordan has taken in a remarkable share of refugees over the last 70 years. Beginning with new state of Israel in 1948,  Jordan accepted refugees from Palestine. This process continued following the 1967 war. The flow of refugees into Jordan increased with the rise of ISIL, and then even more with the current war in Syria.

About one-third of Jordan’s population are refugees from other countries in the Middle East. The government receives some assistance from other countries and aid groups, but in terms of the overall cost, this is minimal.

The costs to Jordanian society are immense. The country has insufficient water and sanitation resources. Health care facilities cannot manage the load. The increased competition for housing has driven up property costs. The crime rate is higher. Taxes have risen.

As a consequence, Jordanian citizens are restive and dissatisfied with response of their government. How long will the population tolerate the remarkable generosity of the government? Practically speaking, the government has little means to correct the situation. They have limited ability to restrict the influx and minimal means to repatriate the refugees.

Here in the US, we find our county more and more distrustful of immigrants. But as we continue to decrease the number of immigrants here in the US, we neglect a huge, smoldering problem in Jordan. And the problem may soon erupt and become our problem.

AL JAZEERA NEWS recently reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has pulled support from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for his failure to accept Israel’s various offers for peace over the years.

The question is: what’s the reason for the Crown Prince’s stated position?

Is this just one of the several new positions already staked out by bin Salman, positions designed to show new directions of the Saudi government?

Does this reflect bin Salman’s apparent friendship with Jared Kushner?

Is this an attempt by bin Salman to gain favor with the US government? Is this part of the reason for the US continuing to support the Saudi war against Yemen?

Are the new moves by bin Salman indicative of a real shift in Saudi policy?

One thing is clear: young Mohammed bin Salman warrants careful watching in the Middle East.

Levant is an old term indicating the area of the Middle East along the eastern Mediterranean. The term entered modern usage from French, but the word is derived from Italian. The original meaning had to do with “rising”, indicating the rising of the sun in the east. The French used the word in their mandate over Syria and Lebanon after World War I.

The experience of the French was quite wide-spread in earlier days, not only in Syria and Lebanon, but also in other areas of the Middle East and North Africa. With the rise of the US in the region, the role of France declined.

But now, as we see the US moving to a more isolationist position, France, under the leadership of Emmanuel Macron, is asserting its role in the area. Macron wants France to become a “great power” again. He has begun the process by inserting himself as an intermediary between the US and Russia. He plans to visit Putin in St. Petersburg later this year. He recently intervened in the crisis over the resignation of Saad Hariri, the Lebanese Prime Minister, assisting in Hariri’s restoration. Thirdly Macron has acted to mediate the ongoing Gulf crisis between Qatar and four other Arab states.

These moves represent France’s intent to replace the role of the US in the region, an effort at globalism versus isolationism.

How may these events affect the US in the long-term? How may they affect the Middle East?

Not many in the West and fewer in the US know the story of Googoosh. Her life mirrors the history of modern Iran.

She was born Faegheh Atashin in 1950 in Tehran, the daughter of parents of Azerbaijani origin. Her career extended from the 50’s through the 70’s as a movie star and singer. At the peak of her career she was the best known pop singer in the Persian language.

With the Iranian revolution in 1979 the theocracy banned her from singing , along with all other female singers. Even though she could not sing in public, her fame grew in Iran through pirated recordings. She did not perform again until the election of Mohammed Khatami when she was allowed to perform, but only outside the country and not in Iran (2000).

In 1980 she was imprisoned for a short time in Iran.

In 2009 she participated in an international protest at the UN in sympathy with the Iranian riots over the 2009 elections.

In February she released a video in support of the gay and lesbian community in Iran, where the death penalty can be imposed for homosexuality.  As such, she was one of the first Persians to speak out.

She continues to perform outside Iran in cities with large Iranian populations.

Googoosh, in her public life, represents the vitality of the Persian people, even as they continue to live under the thumb of the theocracy.

I recall when I returned to Kuwait after the Iraqi invasion. My purpose was to find what was left of our possessions in our residence in the Jabriya section of the city (not much).

But the point here is the taxi driver who picked me up. At that time, after the US had run off the Iraqis, Americans were heroes to the Kuwaitis, and the cabbie was delighted to talk with me. He opened the trunk of his cab and showed me his AK-47. He was clear that Kuwait was not going to allow itself to be invaded again. About the weapon, he said, “Everybody has one.” The weapons were taken from the Iraqi weapons storage facility in Kuwait.

Kuwait law does not specifically give the right to bear arms to its residents. They allow possession to persons over 25 years of age after a background check.

The University of Sydney conducted a survey of guns and violence (Alpers, Philip and Marcus Wilson. 2018. Kuwait — Gun Facts, Figures and the Law. Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney. GunPolicy.org, 22 February. Accessed 30 March 2018. at: http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/kuwait). There are many facets to the study. The rate of civilian gun possession in the US is listed at approximately four times the Kuwait rate. I question the accuracy of these statistics. After the war, there was a Kuwaiti program designed to confiscate the weapons in the community. Very few weapons were turned in, and the actual number of weapons remaining is unknown. Thus, the number of civilian guns in Kuwait is probably considerably higher. One aspect of Kuwaiti culture is celebratory gunfire at weddings, usually on Thursday nights. Take my word for it, there are a lot of guns in Kuwait, and the real rate of gun possession likely approaches the US rate.

Here’s the interesting statistic. The rate of homicide per 100,000 people is more than ten times higher in the US than in Kuwait. So, what’s the deal here?  Certainly, guns play a role, but they’re not the whole story.  As Americans we have to face up to the fact that we, as a people, are prone to violent solutions. Maybe we  can blame it on our history. We tend to use war as a solution. How many wars have there been in the last 100 years? I can’t count.

Mental illness is blamed, but our rate is no higher than that in Kuwait.

I don’t know why Americans seek violence as a solution, but I think that’s the real issue. If there are ideas to address the problem, I’d like to hear them.

On my website you’ll see three publications, Faith in Crisis – How God Shows Up When You Need Him Most, Diwaniya Stories, and Kuwaiti Seeker. I’m afraid their theme is a bit complicated, and life if complicated. But the message of these publications is simple. I’ll get to that in a bit.

First, let me say I have great respect for Islam and Muslims individually. I’ve studied Islam, and I know many Muslims. The Muslims I’ve known I consider friends, honorable and sincere persons, all of them. I’d be OK with them in a foxhole.

The only difference between them and me is Jesus.

Faith in Crisis deals with my family’s experiences during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The Lord preserved our family through his infinite  grace. But if I had not survived, his grace and mercy would be no different. Even in the worst of that episode, I experienced, yes truly experienced, his love.

Diwaniya Stories is an odd little volume told my fictional character Yacoub. Yacoub delineates much of the history of Islam in these stories. I think it’s an honest rendition. I did not intend to be critical but simply factual.

Kuwaiti Seeker, soon to be published, tells Yacoub’s story. Yacoub sought the truth in Islam. Whether he failed or Islam failed, I will not say. In any case, he fell into sin, even though the precepts of Islam were there for him to follow. He failed and he knew it. He had no intention of following Jesus. But Jesus, once again in his infinite grace, pulled Yacoub from the brink. Nothing Yacoub did warranted Jesus coming after him.

So, that’s the theme: Jesus, the Lord, rescues us whether or not we are in the market for it. Jesus is the difference.

Check it out: the complete story is Genesis through Revelation.

The oil-rich Gulf state of Qatar has suffered a multi-pronged blockade by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt. The reasons offered for their blockade are stated as Qatar’s sponsorship of terrorism, support for Hezbollah,  support for Iran, and interference in local politics which might lead to regime change. The proof for these allegations has not been offered.

But here’s the rest of the story. Qatar is the birth place and home of Al-Jazeera. Al-Jazeera has been the primary Arab attempt at quality, fair journalism. The four countries who support the blockade cannot afford the reporting of their countries’ politics by Al-Jazeera.

The blockade, in my view, is politically motivated.

And the other interesting part of the story: Kuwait supports Qatar. What’s going on in the Gulf?

The all-powerful Iranian theocracy struggles to suppress the marvelous diversity  of their country. Al-Jazeera  recently outlined the conflicts between the Gonabadi dervishes and the hardliners who control the country.

The dervishes are a Sufi order of the Shia sect of Islam. When we think of dervishes, the usual image is that of white-robed men dancing in a rapid, circular motion, hence the term whirling dervishes. This dance is an attempt to seek God in the spiritual dimension by losing oneself. The dervishes are a subset of the Sufi order. Sufis seek God through an ascetic life-style with meditations in the spiritual realm.

The conflict came to a head on February 19 when the dervishes clashed with government security forces in Tehran over arrest of one of the group’s leaders. More than 300 hundred of the sect were arrested after the encounter.

The Gonabadi dervishes are the largest of Iran’s Sufi groups, with estimates of perhaps five million followers. Because of their large numbers, and the fact that their theology is not consistent with the mainline of Shiism, the central government fears the group. They are numerous enough to have potential for mobilization against the government. Their places of worship have been destroyed in Qom and Isfahan. President Hassan Rouhani acted to suppress the Gonabadis  in anticipation that the group might be large enough to affect the outcome of upcoming elections.

The Gonabadi story is another example of an attempt by the theocracy to downgrade any sort of diversity in the remarkable Iranian culture. The central government has stated that outside forces perpetuate the Gonabadi uprising, a claim for which there is little support. How long will they be able to hold back the tide of change that is occurring within?

My novel, Kuwaiti Seeker, will appear this spring.

Russia has a clearly defined strategy in the Middle East. Their strategy is to appeal to Shia elements of Islam and to utilize Iran as a base of operation. Through Iran they can interact surreptitiously in Yemen through Iran’s interventions there.

Through Iran they work with Shia elements in Iraq, sowing discord where possible.

The strongest recent evidence for their Iranian influence has been their use of Iranian air bases for attacks in Syria, where they have been able to secure Assad’s victory.

In contrast, but to a much weaker degree, the US utilizes Saudi Arabia as its intermediary.